{"slug":"sea-ice","date":"2026-10-07","channel":"space","layout":"photo","title":"Arctic ice's 2026 low: 4.60 M km², 11th lowest in 48 years","dek":"Stack the minimum for every year since 1979 and 2026 sits in a crowded pack of recent lows, well above the 2012 record.","body":["NASA's Earth Observatory reports that Arctic sea ice reached its yearly minimum on September 12, 2026, at about 4.6 million square kilometres. NASA says that ties three other years for 10th-lowest in the satellite record, and the freeze-up has now begun.","NSIDC's daily record, smoothed over five days, puts the 2026 minimum at 4.60 million km², against 3.39 in the record year of 2012. On that measure only 10 of 47 earlier years were lower, so 2026 ranks 11th, within a four-way cluster NASA rounds to the same figure. The 1979-1988 average minimum was 7.00; the 2017-2026 average is 4.45, a drop of 36%.","A single year's rank says little, since wind and summer weather can move the minimum by a few percent. The trend is what matters: all ten years that came in lower than 2026 are from 2007 onward, and no pre-2007 minimum dipped below 5.3. Watch the winter maximum next March for how much thick, multi-year ice remains."],"facts":[{"label":"2026 minimum (5-day mean)","value":"4.60 million km²"},{"label":"2012 record low","value":"3.39 million km²"},{"label":"2026 rank (1 = lowest)","value":"11 of 48 (NASA: tied 10th at 4.6)"},{"label":"Avg minimum 1979-88 vs 2017-26","value":"7.00 vs 4.45 million km² (36% lower)"}],"chart":{"type":"line","title":"Arctic sea ice annual minimum extent, 1979-2026","unit":"million km²","x":[1979,1980,1981,1982,1983,1984,1985,1986,1987,1988,1989,1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026],"series":[{"name":"Annual minimum (5-day mean)","values":[6.93,7.54,6.92,7.17,7.23,6.43,6.49,7.17,6.96,7.13,6.91,6.04,6.3,7.21,6.18,6.96,6.03,7.19,6.63,6.35,5.76,5.98,6.6,5.64,6.01,5.79,5.32,5.77,4.15,4.59,5.12,4.62,4.34,3.39,5.05,5.03,4.43,4.17,4.67,4.66,4.19,3.82,4.77,4.7,4.26,4.25,4.6,4.6],"hi":true}],"marks":[{"x":2012,"label":"Record low 3.39"},{"x":2026,"label":"2026: 4.60 (prelim.)"}],"yZero":true,"xType":"year"},"sources":[{"name":"NSIDC Sea Ice Index v4 daily extent (N_seaice_extent_daily_v4.0.csv)","url":"https://noaadata.apps.nsidc.org/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/N_seaice_extent_daily_v4.0.csv","licence":"public domain (NSIDC/NOAA@NSIDC, free reuse with citation)","captured":"2026-10-07","class":"primary"},{"name":"NASA Earth Observatory: Arctic Sea Ice Shrinks to Its 2026 Minimum","url":"https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/arctic-sea-ice-shrinks-to-its-2026-minimum/","licence":"NASA public domain","captured":"2026-10-07","class":"published-report"}],"news":[{"title":"Arctic Sea Ice Shrinks to Its 2026 Minimum","source":"NASA Earth Observatory","url":"https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/arctic-sea-ice-shrinks-to-its-2026-minimum/","published":"2026-10-07"}],"caveats":["Our minimum is the lowest 5-day centred average of the daily extent (Aug-Oct) computed from the v4.0 daily file; NSIDC's own published minimums use a similar but not identical 5-day method, so third-decimal values can differ slightly.","The 2026 value is preliminary: the last data in the file is 2026-10-05/06 and extent is rising, so the September minimum should stand, but NSIDC may revise it. NASA rounds 2026, 2025, 2010 and 2008 all to 4.6 million km2 (tied 10th); at full precision we get 11th.","Before 1987 the satellite record has an observation only every other day, so the 5-day mean there uses fewer observations.","Extent is the area with at least 15% ice concentration, not total ice volume."],"photo":{"credit":"NASA Earth Observatory image by Michala Garrison, using data from NSIDC","licence":"public domain","page":"https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/arctic-sea-ice-shrinks-to-its-2026-minimum/","alt":"","src1280":"/media/briefs/sea-ice-1280.avif","bytes1280":70911,"w":1280,"h":853,"src640":"/media/briefs/sea-ice-640.avif","bytes640":21922,"originalBytes":242810},"og":"/media/briefs/sea-ice-og.png","ogBytes":16290,"indexable":true,"gateNotes":[],"url":"https://tecntrend.com/briefs/2026-10-07/sea-ice","licence":"Text and chart CC BY 4.0 Tec N Trend; underlying data per source licence"}